Insights

Configure Partners is proud to release the latest Consumer & Retail Industry Snapshot, observing the macro and personal economics impacting consumer shopping habits and retailer sales.

In our year-end wrap up, Configure prognosticated that another bankruptcy in 2023 would top FTX as the most impactful collapse. Only 69 days into the year, the FDIC placed Silicon Valley Bank into receivership in what was (then) the second largest bank failure in U.S. history. To this point contagion has been prevented, but the impact is being felt.

With 2022 behind us, we look back on a year of continued growth and success with heartfelt gratitude. 2022 marked one of the busiest periods in our collective professional experience. We represented over $3.0 billion in capital commitments, with a significant portion in our Debt Placement practice. This achievement is a testament to our expertise and commitment to helping our clients secure the financing they need.

Consumer behaviors are in flux, and we are in the midst of a transformation within the retail sector as a result. Prototypical brick-and-mortar retail footprints are becoming less prevalent as retailers transition towards virtual, online, and even “meta” store locations.

Configure polled a broad swath of lenders focused on middle market, sponsor-backed deals regarding financing conditions and their institution’s views on 2023. Lenders reflected on capital deployment and shifting economics as well as shared insights on approval process and watchlist credits.

With the cost of labor, logistics, and raw materials all rising through 2021 into 2023, levered companies facing the fastest rising interest rate cycle in decades have found their earnings compressed and ability to comply with financial covenants compromised. Configure Partners is actively helping borrowers and lenders structure and fund value-maximizing outcomes amidst this challenging operating environment.

Market conditions during the third quarter were mixed and reflected a continuing trend towards more cautionary stance. In an ongoing effort to tame inflation, the Federal Reserve enacted 75 bps rate hikes at both the July and September meetings. Recent readings suggest early success, as the September consumer price index eased slightly.

COVID-19 pandemic has had a permanent impact on consumer buying behaviors, and in 2022, unique factors continue to impact the industry despite e-commerce spending normalizing as well as continued improvements in overall foot traffic.

Second quarter market conditions maintained the trend of choppiness in the broader markets that began during 1Q22. Global economic concerns such as inflation, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and oil prices continued (or escalated) through June, suppressing larger syndicated transactions compared to 2021.

Senate discussion on an arms treaty with Russia/ Soviet Union…Inflation rising at a blistering annual pace…Tourism slowed by fears about gasoline prices. Though these headlines are easily mistakable for a March 2022 edition of the Wall Street Journal, they are in fact three featured articles from the front page of the New York Times on July 27, 1979.

Bond yields for restaurant borrowers escalated rapidly in March of 2020 as fears over COVID-19 cast a chill on financial markets broadly and the leisure and hospitality sector specifically.

Despite the emergence of omicron during the holiday season, credit markets remained active throughout the fourth quarter of 2021. M&A activity closed at a similar pace experienced throughout the year, as sponsors and sellers sought to transact before the possibility of any tax changes in 2022.

As COVID drifts (somewhat) into the rearview mirror, we consider ourselves fortunate.  We are fortunate to have an amazing team at Configure Partners, fortunate to have an incredibly supportive and growing group of clients, and fortunate that 2022 appears to offer a return to “normal.”  While Zoom and telephone calls are better than nothing, we’ve missed getting together with you in person.  We look forward to doing more of that in 2022!

Labor Day came and went without the usual end-of-summer slowdown, leaving professionals that sought a respite from the flurry of deal activity looking ahead to the holiday season. As the Pacific Northwest suffered through a major heatwave, the M&A markets were even hotter, which pushed ahead at record-setting levels.

Few could predict how far things would come 12 months after the COVID-19 recession ended in April 2020. Now recognized as the shortest recession on record, it took credit markets slightly longer to shake it off, but private debt has emerged from out of the woods at a fearless pace.

Markets followed up an extraordinary end to 2020 with another strong quarter to kick off 2021. M&A activity led the way for sponsor-backed deals. All told, the market remains in borrowers’ favor, with limited signs of pushback from eager investors.

The retail industry has been in flux for the last several years as consumers continue to shift their purchases online. This trend clearly accelerated during 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Pace of credit issuance surged from 0 to 60 in a matter of weeks, driven in large part by frenzied M&A activity. A combination of factors contributed to record levels of M&A activity in 2020’s final three months, including relaunching of delayed sell-side processes, sponsors eager to deploy dry powder, and founder/ owners seeking to equitize in anticipation of potential tax code changes. All told, Q4 2020 produced the highest quarterly M&A value since Q4 2015.

2020 was a year like no other, dominated by the chaos inflicted by COVID-19.  At Configure, we consider ourselves fortunate to have the opportunity to grow stronger through the turmoil.  Our clients remained active, and many turned to us for help through COVID-driven distress.  Others looked to Configure for assistance in financing new acquisitions in the midst of the turmoil.

Momentum in credit issuance has picked up as financial markets have stabilized, and both borrowers and lenders have adjusted to a new normal in the pandemic age. This adjustment was evident between the “tale of two quarters” experienced before and after Labor Day, as borrower cautiousness in seeking capital at the beginning of the quarter eventually gave way to the typical rush to complete deals by year-end.

The coronavirus pandemic froze activity until a surge of government stimulus and rising confidence began to thaw middle-market issuance. Contrary to the pre-COVID supply/demand imbalance in favor of sponsors and borrowers, the crisis has turned the tables and is testing relationships between borrowers and lenders.

In just weeks, management teams at many Tier 1 and Tier 2 suppliers have developed extensive contingency plans to cope with COVID-19 positive employees. Most now consider themselves well-prepared.

Borrowers should approach negotiations with their lenders with both a defined request and plan of action in order to reach a mutual agreement and ensure ongoing partnership.